Sophie's US Election Blog

The West Wing and 'The West Wing'

2008-11-10T03:54:00.000-08:00

Unless you have been under a rock for the past two weeks there was a little election that happened last week and what a monumental night it was. Decked in my Obama T-Shirt and having multiple conversations with people all around the country at 3am in the morning grasping at my cup of coffee mixed with the adrenaline of the night it was an historic event. America voted and they voted for an African American in an extraordinary feat. My friends and I put this into perspective when we dwelled upon the fact that when our parents were born America was still under the sickening vice of segregation. Whilst advances were clearly made in the 1950s with Brown v Board of Education, Rosa Parks, the Greensboro Sit In and other monumental events that paved the way for civil rights the Civil Rights Act after multiple failed attempts to pass it through Congress was not passed until 1964, after our parents were born. Forty Four years later America voted and the voted for a black man. It is hard not be be moved.

Just under a week later and the President-Elect has promised to reverse the decisions Bush made when he became President. Federal funding for stem cell research will now be passed.
(It has to be remembered that stem cell research bills have been passed but President Bush exercised his right of veto and Congress could not get the two thirds it needed to overturn the veto). US aid workers in the poorest nations on earth can now counsel citizens on abortion availability. And there is the little matter of drafting a timetable for troop withdrawal in Iraq. We have some wonderful times to look forward too under the Obama Administration.

But the future of Obama is not the point of this blog for now but the announcement of Rahm Emmanuel as Chief of Staff has certainly been an interesting choice. Not interesting for the fact that he once headbutted a Junior Senator for not agreeing with him (allegedly), sending a rotting fish (allegedly), or telling Tony Blair in the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal 'Don't fuck this up' (allegedly) but the startling revelation that Emmanuel was in fact the inspiration for the character Josh Lyman in 'The West Wing'. Like Emmanuel, Lyman also send an opponent a rotting fish. They both ran into trouble with the First Lady to the extent that she wanted them fired. Both can cause more trouble than it is worth. But even after the election the Obama/West Wing comparisons are not ended. Josh Lyman became the Chief of Staff for Matthew Santos like Emmanuel is the new Chief of Staff for Obama. It is an interesting story so lets run through all the Obama/West Wing comparisons again:

-In The West Wing a young minority candidate is chosen as a contender for the Democratic nomination in the name of Matthew Santos. After a very slow start and minimal funding soon becomes THE candidate to watch. Funding increases and quickly becomes a front runner. IRL (In Real Life) a young minority candidate is chosen as a contender for the Democratic party. After a slow start and minimal funding soon becomes THE candidate to watch. Funding increases and quickly becomes a front runner.
-In TWW the Republicans choose an older moderate conservative in the name of Arnie Vinick as their nomination for the party in a race that is sown up early in the primary season. IRL the Republicans choose an older moderate conservative in the name of John McCain as the nomination for the party in a race that is sown up early in the primary season.
-In TWW Santos' campaign was a tight race with the experienced Democrat Bob Russell. IRL Obama's campaign was a tight race with the experienced Democrat Hillary Clinton.
-In TWW Santos chooses a Washington insider Leo McGarry as his VP. IRL Obama chooses a Washington insider Joe Biden as his running mate.
-In TWW Vinick chooses a conservative running mate from a small Republican state. IRL McCain chooses a conservative running mate from a small Republican state.
-In TWW Vinick was ahead in the polls until a nuclear accident at the plant he supported near the end of the campaign. IRL McCain was ahead in the polls until the Global Financial Crisis near the end of the campaign.
-In TWW the Phillies played in the World Series. IRL the Phillies played in the World Series.

Some extraordinary comparisons. Hey at least now we get to see what season eight of The West Wing would have been like!

Endorsements and Concessions Galore!

2008-01-31T03:50:00.000-08:00

Well, what a day it was yesterday! Only one day after the Florida primary we saw two consessions, and two endorsements. Wow, us political junkies were really treated yesterday. So what exactly happened yesterday and what does it all mean for the candidates in the run up to Super Tuesday? First of all I apologise for not writing sooner. I anticipated a day of events so I waited until the end for all the news to come through. Secondly, the perils of the essay and its dire need of completion began to make itself known. So Microsoft Word had my attention for most of the day yesterday, but my good friends at ABC shouldn't worry, I was still checking their website on an hourly basis.

Anyway back on topic, each party had a concession of its own yesterday. John Edwards, having maintained that he would stay in it until the convention, finally decided to bow out yesterday. In a speech yesterday he wished both the candidates luck and to make sure that adressing poverty remained a key issue. Edwards however did not off an endorsement as of yet, so is probably waiting until after Super Tuesday and seeing what happens. Officially the Democratic race is now a two horse race, although Mike Gravel is technically still in it. I'm not sure why.

On the Republican side, Rudy Guiliani also dropped out of the race. After his humiliating defeat in Florida, his concession speech on Tuesday had the tones of a farewell speech, and dropped out yesterday shortly before the GOP debate in California. A major factor as to why he decided to drop out was most likely so he could avoid a frankly embarassing and humiliating debate in his hime state of New York. Unlike Edwards, he offered an endorsement and the lucky recipient-John McCain. McCain also recieved another endorsement in California. The Governator himself offered McCain his support, pledging his support for the maverick. Unfortunately there were no Terminator catachphrases used in his endorsement speech which I was very disapointed at.

So there you go, a busy day for politics. As once said a week is a long time in politics, and who knows what else could happen in the run up to Tuesday.

Mac is truly back

2008-01-30T06:38:00.000-08:00

So there we go. Six months after his campaign was down and out, virtually bankrupt, he has emerged as the Republican front runner, beating the original national front runner Guiliani. Throughout the night it remained a close contest between McCain and Romney, and at one point in the night there was only a point between the two. But third placed Guiliani was way behind Romney, with 16% of the vote. It truly was a disaster for Guiliani, who had spent weeks in Florida. Well, at least he got a nice suntan. In his concession speech, Guilani said that he was going to stay in the race, but will he decide at the last minute to drop out to avoid humiliation on Tuesday. Mike Huckabee came close behind Guiliani with 14%, and Ron Paul 5th-believe it or not he's still in the race. I'm not sure either why he just doesn't drop. The consensus surrounding Huckabee's campaign is that he can pick up a few votes in the Southern states, due to its large evangelical base. By now it's a given that he wont win, but with vital southern delegates he could play a role as kingmaker at the convention.

On the Democratic side Clinton won the Florida primary-a state that no one had campaigned in due to no delegates. The candidates had pledged not to campaign in the states where there were no delegates, but Clinton slyly left her name on the ticket in Michigan, and went to Florida to tell them she would try and reinstate their delegates. In other news however it has been reported that John Edwards will later today drop out of the race. Edwards advisers have said that 'it's just not going to happen', and the question that now remains to be seen is who will he endorse.

With 6 days to go until Super Tuesday the race on the Democratic side is down to two. But with the two so close, the race could continue after Tuesday. In the Republican side it seems unofficially between McCain and Romney, but whether this turns official by Tuesday remains to be seen. Check back through the week for the latest campaign gossip and developments. Plus check back on Sunday for my report on my day on the campaign trail, as I campaign in London for Barack Obama on Saturday for the expat primary on Tuesday! It's going to be a great week.

The Sunshine State Preview

2008-01-29T08:28:00.000-08:00

As I sit in my currently absolutely freezing room, I am displaying a certain sense of envy towards the Republican candidates who are currently in much warmer climates than your blogger is in now. So with the Florida results due in later in the day I shall be previewing this primary in currently very wet socks (my bathroom floor is soaking and it won't dry up. Please feel free to email me with suggestions!) Anyway, back to Florida and it looks like it is going to be a pretty miserable night for a certain ex mayor. Guiliani has pulled all his resources into this state, and is now in early exit polls pulling in a dismal third place, behind John McCain and Mitt Romney. It's safe to say now that we have our two front runners, and if Guiliani fails to win tonight it'll be all over for him. He simply has not got any momentum, and this is a disaster only a week away from Super Tuesday.

In Democratic news, no candidate has campaigned tonight due to no delegates being up for grabs, so the primary is merely symbolic. But what a week for Barack Obama! Not only content with winning South Carolina on Saturday, in the two days after that he has racked up the creme de la creme of endorsements. On Sunday, in an op ed piece with The New York Times, Obama won the endorsement of no other than Caroline Kennedy, comparing Obama to her late father JFK. Obama secured enough Kennedy endorsement the next day with the lion, and patriarch, of the Democratic Part Ted Kennedy, who in his endorsement speech criticised Bill Clinton's campaigning strategy. As I said in a previous blog, whilst it may have worked in the short term, it is now beginning to unravel. This is a major blow for Hillary Clinton, who has worked closely

with Ted Kennedy in the Senate, and is a sign of the Democratic establishment, who had previously sided with her, now shifting to Obama.

So here we go, here are my predictions for Florida tonight:

1st-McCain

2nd-Romney

3rd-Guiliani.

Mike Huckabee, who shocked everyone with his Iowa win, will concede the race after Super Tuesday. Guiliani will not drop out now, but will have to assess his options after Super Tuesday depending on the results. Check back tomorrow for a full review of Florida. What I wouldn't give to be sipping a cocktail in Boca Raton right now.

Barack storms South Carolina

2008-01-27T04:35:00.000-08:00

Lets be honest, we all expected an Obama win last night. Most polls had him at 15 points over Hillary. But the final result was a landslide. Obama won with 55% of the vote, with Clinton in 2nd place with 27% of the vote, and Edwards with 18%. This is great news for Obama, and now the two front runners go into Super Tuesday with two wins each. Clinton was obviously not expecting to win, with her leaving for Tennessee before the votes were counted. Obama in his victory speech told his supporters that this proved the cynics wrong, that Iowa was not just a fluke, and criticised the candidates representing the status quo of Washington, a thinly veiled dig at the Clinton attacks this week.

Bill Clinton played down the victory, and has been accused of marginalising Obama as the black candidate. He proceeded to say that Jesse Jackson won the state in 84 and 88, and it was the large black population that won it for Obama. This is true to an extent, 55% of the voters were indeed African American and Obama won about 80% of these votes. He did not do so well with the white vote, winning just over a quarter with Clinton and Edwards winning 40% each. But as Obama said, he won in Iowa which is a state with a virtually all white population and was only a few points behind Hillary in New Hampshire, another all white state.

This of course makes Super Tuesday even harder to predict. 24 states cast their votes and its too close to call to see who will prevail. Hillary is focusing on the larger states such as California and New York, with Obama focusing his attentions on the Southern states. But what does this all mean for John Edwards. He has repeated that he will stay in the race, despite not winning or coming second in South Carolina, a state that he won in 2004. It seems by now that he is not going to win, and is staying in the race to break a possible tie between the two, with the promise of a cushy job in exchange for delegates.

The Republicans meanwhile go into Florida on Tuesday with Guiliani in an unprecedented third place, being McCain and Romney. This would be an utter disaster for Guliani but even if he loses he will not quit, and will stay in until after Super Tuesday. In the latest endorsement news the Governor of Florida Charlie Crist has backed John McCain, and Obama has the Chicago Tribune. He also has arguably got a more lucrative endorsement than Hillary's New York Times with Caroline Kennedy backing him. Kennedy compared Obama to her late father, and that is going to work highly in his favour.

So we head into Florida and Super Tuesday again with the race no clearer. In the coming weeks the race will get even nastier, the attacks coming thick and fast.

The Palmetto Preview

2008-01-26T05:52:00.000-08:00

At time of writing, the polls in South Carolina have been open for a mere two hours, and already speculation is being made about the winner of. Of course, with a 13 point lead in the opinion polls, it would be inconceivable if Obama did not win the state. Hillary Clinton, I think that's the Clinton that is running, has seemingly accepted defeat and has moved on to Florida, leaving Bill to campaign for her in SC. It has been a week of fighting, nastiness, and sometimes petulant squabbling, but that's how we like our politics. Obama's heavy lead in South Carolina has a lot to do with half of the voters being African American, and the candidates have done a lot to entice these voters. They have been going to church services in predominantly black churches, and the race card has played a large role this week due to Martin Luther King Jr Day. We have seen a lot more of Bill Clinton this week, due to his popularity amongst the African American community.

Whilst Bill has been defending his wife's Walmart links, and once again criticising Obama's 'inexperience', Hillary has been down to the sunshine state to do some campaigning herself. Whilst Florida has been a focal point for the Republicans it has been largely ignored by the Democrats, due to no delegates being up for grabs due to a violation of DNC rules. But Mrs Clinton has decided that doesn't matter, and believes that securing the win in Florida will give her momentum going into Super Tuesday.

In other Democrat news Dennis Kucinich has finally dropped out of the race, after poor showings in the primaries and achieving no where near the 15% margin that is needed to be awarded delegates. John Edwards has accepted his fate that he is not going to be president but will stay in the race. With it being a neck and neck tie between Obama and Clinton, Edwards advisors believe that he could play a key kingmaker role in exchange for delegates. Also, The New York Times has lent its endorsement to Hillary Clinton, praising her experience in the editorial. This is no surprise, she is after all the Senator from New York.

Polls close at 7pm ET, that's 12am GMT, with results expected from about half 12 onwards. This is the last major primary for the Democrats before Super Tuesday so expect frantic cross country campaigning from all candidates from both parties throughout the whole of next week.

Also for those who haven't seen it check out The Colbert Report from Tuesday night. It had an utterly fantastic segment on the Charlestown Hospital Strike of 1969, and an absolutely wonderful interview with Andrew Young. It really is unmissable.

Mid week developments

2008-01-23T04:30:00.000-08:00

Hey guys! I hope all is well. Just to let you know, if you do not know already, some of the latest developments that have happened yesterday. Last night Fred Thompson pulled out of the race, after doing poorly in South Carolina. Well he came third, but it was a state that he said himself he had to win. Mr Thompson so far has not endorsed anyone, but time will tell if does indeed decide to endorse. Fred Thompson's initial campaign showed him polling second in national polls last summer, but that has sharply declined. Isn't it amazing the complete turnaround of McCain and Thompson's campaign this summer. Thompson isn't the first GOP candidate to drop out this week, after South Carolina Duncan Hunter also conceeded.

On the Democrat side, Obama is storming in the polls in South Carolina, with him 15 points clear of Clinton. But as New Hampshire has taught us, don't trust the polls. Saying that however, it seems certain that Obama will pick up the win on Saturday.

Florida is an interesting story for the Republicans. After months of a Guliani lead, McCain is now leading by four points, with Romney only a point behind Guliani. If Guliani does not win Florida, a state that he has focused all his energies on, it would quite frankly be a disaster. So as ever the race is getting more and more interesting by the second, not a hour goes by where I haven't been alerted to a new development for both sides.

On a side note however, the reason why I did not post the Thompson development last night was that it was overshadowed by an event that had nothing to do with US politics. As you all know, the actor Heath Ledger was found dead yesterday, an event that has shocked the world. I would like to offer my sincerest condolences to his family and friends. He was a fantastic actor, and a death of someone so young is always a tragedy. RIP Heath Ledger 1979-2008.

Obama vs Clinton/s

2008-01-22T09:15:00.000-08:00

Last night saw what, lets face it, everyone had been waiting for. The race to turn nasty. After weeks of niceties and mutual regard for each other, the two main candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, last night engaged in a fiery debate, with John Edwards calling it 'squabbling'. Poor John, in a race that is seeing him lose more and more points, it was his chance to shine but he ended up being ignored. Surely Edwards needs to realise that he's not going to win, and concede after South Carolina, rather than wait until a drubbing on Super Tuesday.

Back to the debate and it was one that touched on the big issues, and their respective weaknesses. Clinton touched on Obama's record on Iraq, and his ties to a real estate mogul under investigation for fraud. Obama touched upon Clinton's past experience as a corporate lawyer on the board of Walmart. It was indeed a personal debate and Obama refused to let the attacks from both Hillary and Bill Clinton throughout the week intimidate him. Clinton however, maintained that it was difficult to get a straight answer from Obama, which is a bit rich coming from Mrs Clinton. The most publicised attack coming from the Clinton camp this week was Bill Clinton deliberately twisting Obama's remarks on Ronald Reagen, saying that Obama had praised Reagen and that the Republicans were the ones that had the great ideas since 1992. That's not exactly what he said Bill. And quite rightly, Obama told everyone in the debate that it was hard to tell which Clinton he was running against at times.

As we approach South Carolina this Saturday, Obama was firmly the man in focus this week, a lot of it due to MLK day yesterday. Obama has proved that his campaign is no 'fairytale', with him leading Clinton in the South Carolina polls. Overall the two are neck and neck nationally, with the race getting a lot more personal.

Nevada and South Carolina Results

2008-01-20T05:39:00.000-08:00

As I called my housemates at 11pm, trying desperately to hear the results over the sounds of the musical 'delights' of the 80s and 90s, the results of the caucuses which pretty much as expected. Hillary Clinton won the caucus for the Democrats by polling 51% of the votes, followed by Obama at 45%. Edwards came in third place yet again but only polled 4% of the vote. Edwards, although adamant he won't drop out of the race, might have to rethink his earlier assertion after continuous poor showings. Edwards should pick up some points in South Carolina next week but can still only hope for third place. Unfortunately I can't see Edwards holding out to the convention, and will probably concede after Super Tuesday. The Republicans meanwhile saw another win for Romney but it was a state that no candidate was particularly interested in, focusing on the more important South Carolina. Like Clinton, Romney got 51% of the vote and stormed it, with Ron Paul polling 2nd with 14%, and John McCain third.

But whilst it is another win for Romney, he has not captured the coveted frontrunner position, a position that was occupied and reinforced by John McCain, who won South Carolina with 33%, followed closely by Huckabee with 30%, which I managed to be home in time for but was severely dissapointed with the BBC's non existent coverage of this important primary. Huckabee must be disappointed; he was relying on the evangelical vote to see him with a win but a large number have abandoned him and sided with McCain. Like Edwards, Huckabee will probably only last until Super Tuesday. This win was an incredibly important one for McCain, as every Republican who has won this primary since 1980 has gone on to win the nomination, so it is looking more and more likely that the first week of September will see the confirmation of a certain senator from Arizona.

For the Democrats the race remains wide open. Whilst Clinton gained the popular vote in Nevada, Obama gained more delegates overall due to the proportional representation system that decides the number of delegates the candidates are allowed. Obama got 13 delegates, to Clinton's 12. This is because Obama won more of the rural areas, and these are allowed an extra delegate due to the small populations. And he won these areas not by the popular vote, but by a pack of cards due to two districts in these rural areas being tied, called the Old West Tie Breaker. In order to decide the victor of the two districts a Clinton supporter and an Obama supporter pulled a card from the pack, and who got the higher card won the district. Obama came up trumps both times. Only in Nevada!

So the Democrats look to South Carolina on Saturday, which should see Obama picking up the win here due to 50% of Democrat voters in the state being African American. The Clinton camp should be expect second place, which is why Clinton is focusing on securing the Hispanic population which helped her pick up Nevada. The Republicans look to Florida the following Tuesday which will spell disaster for Guliani if he does not win, as he has ignored all the previous states. Then my friends we have Super Tuesday, which is going to be celebrated at my house with an election party! Keep checking the blog for the latest ups and downs in the race for the nominations. This race never fails to amaze!

It's Vegas baby!

2008-01-18T16:39:00.000-08:00

Hey everyone! It's now hit Saturday in wet and windy Blighty and am readily anticipating what is going to be closely contested races in both Nevada and South Carolina. The Democrats have to wait until next Saturday for their South Carolina primary so all three major candidates have been in Nevada for most of the week, and to quote every single news and television pundit out there, the gloves have come off. The Culinary workers union have won their lawsuit to allow precincts for the caucus to be established in the Strip, meaning that they will be able to vote during working hours (the caucuses close at 4pm ET for R, 5pm for D). This is especially important for Obama's campaign as the Culinary Union of casino employees, the states largest union, has lent it's support to Obama. Critics of this result for the union have argued that it unfavourably favours them against other workers, and the suit was filed by the Teachers Union, who have ties to Clinton. Um, I'm not sure of any teacher that works on a Saturday mind you. Anyhoo the latest polls show Obama a few points behind Hillary, with a four point margin of error, so it's pretty much a tie in the polls. It's going to be incredibly tight but I'm going to predict an Clinton win. The Republicans it is also a close race between Romney and McCain, but can see Romney picking up the win here.

But the Republicans are focusing their energies on the South Carolina Primary, with only Romney making a fleeting appearance in Nevada this week. Again it is a close race and the vast demographic of Christians in the state is going to favour Huckabee. Huckabee should do well here, followed closely by McCain. However many pundits have agreed if McCain fails to win, then he will lose his current frontrunner status. Polls close at 7pm ET (12am GMT).

Unfortunately this will be the first races of the primary season that I am unable to watch live due to a friends birthday on the same night. It has caused me great distress all week. But fear now, I will be back to my late night/early morning primary watching for the Democrat SC primary next Sat. I have checked-no one has any birthdays! Check back here on Sunday for a closer look at Nevada and South Carolina, as I nurse my inevitable hangover.

Mitt takes Michigan!

2008-01-16T03:58:00.000-08:00

The race for the nomination for the Republican party has again been thrown wide open, with Mitt Romney winning Michigan with 39% of the vote, followed by John McCain with 30%, and followed by Mike Huckabee with 17%. This was an expected win for Romney, due to his home tie roots and by declaring 'Michigan is in my DNA', repeated throughout his speeches about his ties with Michigan. However it would be naive to think that it was only his roots in the state that gave him the win here, although over 50% of the voters said it had played some importance. Michigan is a state with the highest unemployment rate in the United States, with just over 7% of its people out of work. Economy was at the forefront of voters minds, with it featuring much higher than Iraq and immigration in their list of priorities. Romney's successful business ethic. Romney in his victory speech, promised the Michigan voters that he would see to it that their economy great, devising a national policy for automakers, if elected. Romney seemed at ease when talking about economic issues the past few days, and this translated into votes.

Whilst Romney has two primaries under his belt, he is by no means the front runner, a position recently acquired by a certain John McCain. The Republicans look to Saturday where they have the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary on the same night. Nevada is traditionally a low key affair and most Republican candidates have forgoed it to focus on the more important South Carolina. Romney is spending two days in Nevada, before joining his fellow Republicans in South Carolina. South Carolina is going to be tough for Romney, due to it's large evangelical base which will favour Mike Huckabee, and John McCain is picking up ground amongst the Evangelical crowd as well. It will be a surprise if Romney comes higher than third.

On the Democrat side, no candidate campaigned in the state last night due to no delegates being up for grabs. Michigan forfeited its right of delegates by moving its primary forward, a violation of DNC rules. Clinton, the only main candidate on the ticket, picked up the victory, followed by uncommitted. Obama and Edwards supporters urged their voters to vote uncommitted as a sign of protest, and to prevent Clinton making a clean sweep. South Carolina isn't until next week for them so they will be focusing on Nevada this Saturday, with Obama expected to pick up the win due to his many recent endorsements with the casino employees, and catering employees, unions backing him.

As we head ever closer to Super Tuesday the races for both parties nomination remains no closer to having an obvious winner. It is the closest race that we have witnessed in years, making it an unpredictable and exciting affair!

Michigan preview

2008-01-15T11:03:00.000-08:00

Hey folks! It is merely hours away until the polls close in Michigan, which is looking like an increasingly more important primary for McCain and Romney by the minute. The Democrats, it has to be remembered, are not campaigning in the state due to no delegates being up for grabs, due to a violation of DNC rules. Obama and Edwards are not even on the ticket so Clinton should pick up the result here, as she is the only main candidate still on the ballot. But this result is pretty much null and void for her, but the Republicans still have delegates they can fight for. Currently Romney, according to the latest polls, is up in Michigan by 25%, with his closest rival McCain on 21%. But as well all know by now a 4% margin is by no means a guaranteed win, and in a few hours time this result between the front runners could be reversed. Without a doubt Romney needs the win, and if he does not win the state where his father was Governor in the 60s, and in fact is his birth state, then Romney might as well say goodbye to his dreams of being president. Tonight the Democrats are in Las Vegas for their debate, which is going to be one that will unearth the lingering tensions between Obama and Clinton, who's campaign has taken a battering recently due to her perceived racist comments and critique of Martin Luther King. As we plow towards Super Tuesday these races are getting meaner, tougher, dirtier and that's the way we like it!

Now for the latest endorsement news......

2008-01-13T03:27:00.000-08:00

So it's been a busy week for both parties, notably the Democrats, in terms of endorsements for our lovely candidates. More and more Republicans are coming out to give their support to John McCain, who if Michigan proves successful, will emerge as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. But it's the Democrats, or a certain someone called Barack Obama, that the endorsements have been coming thick and fast. Janet Napolitano, the Governor of Arizona, has leant her support to Obama as she thinks 'he's a new young voice who has new appeal, particularly for those of us in the West'. This is important for Obama as the Democrats go into the neighbouring Nevada for their caucuses next week. Even better news for Obama is that he has also received the backing of a prominent union of casino employees in Nevada, so if Obama does not pick up Nevada next week it will certainly be a shocking result. However, well it depends on how you interpret this, it's not all roses and sunshine for Obama. He has also received the support of the 2004 Democratic nomination John Kerry. It remains to be be seen how this will affect Obama's campaign going into Michigan and Nevada, and beyond, but it didn't make it any less funny when Stephen Colbert responded to this news: 'I don't agree with anything he did, or anything he stood for, but he did not deserve that'.

Breaking News: Richardson out of the race

2008-01-10T13:37:00.000-08:00

It was announced merely hours ago that Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination. Richardson was hoping that his vast experience in politics and the race now being down to four candidates, after Biden and Dodd dropped out, would help gain some momentum. But in the end Richardson was outdone by Obama and Clinton, whose million dollar campaigns proved too much for him. Richardson continually expressed his frustration to the crowds over this and his point is backed up by financial figures: Richardson spent $500,000 in New Hampshire, with Obama and Clinton spending $2.5 million each. He went to take fourth place in the primary, with only five percent of the vote.

When polls go wrong.

2008-01-09T03:21:00.000-08:00

Wow. Who would have thought that after opinion polls projected Obama winning New Hampshire by an unprecedented thirteen points, Clinton would by the end of the night end up winning by three points. Clinton won the race by 39% of the votes, compared to Obama's 36%, and Edwards trailing behind on 17%. Now with one a piece, Obama and Clinton are neck and neck in the race to become the Democratic candidate, on a day where Clinton lost her national lead. Both candidates are on 33% nationally, according to the latest Gallup poll. The victory was sure to come as a surprise in the Clinton camp, and an unexpected blow for the Obama camp. Obama had won early results in New Hampshire from the precincts that opened their polls at midnight. But despite Obama's momentum at the moment, we knew he wasn't going to win every primary and caucus out there going, cementing the tantalising race between Obama and Clinton.

But how did political analysts and pollsters get it so fundamentally wrong? Well the most likely answer to that is that many polls did not take into account the amount of undecided voters going into the polls. Many interviews with voters throughout the day told the press that they were going to decide who to vote for when they got to the polls, and evidence suggests that the undecideds voted for Clinton. Obama also lost a lot of the independent votes to the Republican winner John McCain, and the women voters, to which New Hampshire have a large demographic, voted for Clinton. Also what many correspondents agree on is that Clinton's show of emotion the day before, her voice almost breaking when she said how much worshiped public service, had an effect on the result, especially amongst female voters. However this could damage her nationally, with Clinton doubters saying that emotional people do not make good presidents.

On the Republican side the polls were right and McCain was projected the winner very early on in the night with 37%, with Romney coming second again with 32%. Whilst he can hardly be called a kid, McCain last night showed what an extraordinary comeback looks like, with his campaign almost bankrupt in the summer. Romney will be disappointed to come second but should win South Carolina on the 19th. Guliani came behind Huckabee in the result, and his decision not to campaign in Iowa and NH could cost him dearly. The Florida primary should shed some more light on the fate of Guiliani's presidential campaign in a few weeks time.

So while the Clinton rally moves on, leaving behind a town hall of streamers and confetti, what should be expected in the next coming primaries? For the Democrats Obama should take Michigan on the 15th, and Romney will take it for the Republicans. The Nevada caucuses are on the same day as the South Carolina primary for the Republicans on the 19th, the next 'big' primary on the fixture list. At the moment it is hard to predict Nevada, due to its lack of coverage in the press. The next big primaries are the South Carolina primaries, with the Democrats having theirs a week later on the 26th. Whatever happens this race has proved that it is quite simply unmissable.

South Carolina predictions:

Democrat Republican

1st-Obama 1st-Huckabee
2nd-Edwards 2nd-Romney

3rd-Clinton 3rd-McCain

And finally, I shall leave you all with a picture of the man, that was so cruelly ousted from the South Carolina Democratic ticket. Sob, it simply wasn't meant to be.

Updated predictions

2008-01-07T14:26:00.000-08:00

When I wrote the blog a couple days ago Clinton had a large monentum still in New Hampshire so I predicted her the win. However due to Obama's astonishing surge, now being ten points up in the state, I have to give the win to Obama. However he will not win by the ten point margin he has in these early exit polls. Sophie see's Obama winning by about 5% of the vote. I must maintain that Clinton should not be written out of the race quite yet if Obama picks up the win. It is a marathon, not a sprint, and these are by no means an indicator of what is to befall upon us. More clarity will be revealed after Super Tuesday. If Obama trounces Clinton here it may be time to consider bowing out. I'll see you all after New Hampshire!

Iowa Caucus 3rd Jan

2008-01-07T07:29:00.000-08:00

Iowa speaks, America listens

Picture the scene. Two US election political junkies trawling the streets of Southampton looking for a Freeview box at around 11pm in bitterly cold winds, just so they are able to watch the first of the state primaries, kicking off what is sure to be the most exciting political campaign to date. Was it worth it? Oh yes. Gearing up at midnight we watched the analysis and predictions of what is to come from newspaper political editors, news correspondents and political analysists, with many early exit polls placing Obama with a two point lead over Hillary at 31%, with Edwards and Clinton at 29%. Many analysts predicted an Obama win and it was a question of how much of a disaster it would be if Clinton came third. At around 1am the Republican results were announced, coming in first due to their much easier way of voting in these caucuses than the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee was declared the winner, followed by Mitt Romney and John McCain in third. It has to be remembered that John McCain spent little time in Iowa, not releasing a single ad and to come third is an extraordinary feat, with him being expected to pick up the win in New Hampshire. Romney, of course has to be disappointed. He spent over $17 million dollars of his own money, and spent 20 times that of Huckabee’s budget. If Romney does not win, or come second in New Hampshire, with him polling at only 6% in national polls it might be time for him to realise that he’s not going to the White House. Huckabee on the other hand will be pleased with the win and will now focus on the upcoming South Carolina primary. Huckabee knows that he will not do well in New Hampshire quite simply due to the lack of Evangelical Christians in those parts. Over 60% of people in Iowa identify themselves as EC’s whereas in is only 20% in New Hampshire. South Carolina has a strong Christian demographic so it will be a shock if he does not pick up the victory there. When Romney was asked why he thought he didn’t win in Iowa he simply replied ‘I’m not a Baptist preacher’. I think with that remark Romney should not put his house on doing well in South Carolina.

Soon we had the Democrat result and as expected Obama took the win. But Obama took that win with just over 36% of the vote. Obama benefited greatly from the 18-26 demographic with him picking up a phenomenal 54% of. He also took a large chunk of the female vote, a demographic that Clinton relies on. Many of Obama’s caucusers were first time voters and he gained a lot of the Independent vote, which should see him picking up a few points in the national polls. Most importantly it showed to the world that America is ready for change and is looking to the candidate of hope, rather than experience, to take them there. Clinton will not be happy with third place, although Edwards only beat her by 3 points of a percentage point. But she should take New Hampshire and still has a large lead in the national polls. Also Iowa is not an indicator of who will be president, with both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan coming third.

So the candidates roll on the New Hampshire for some last minute campaigning, trying to muster those all important voters. The US election has officially kicked off and by god, I’m overcome with excitement. Let the battle commence!

Predictions for New Hampshire:

Democrat Republican
1st-Clinton 1st-McCain
2nd-Obama 2nd-Romney
3rd-Edwards 3rd-Huckabee

Hello and welcome!

2008-01-07T07:24:00.000-08:00

Hello everyone and welcome to my new blog, based on the wonderful and exciting US Election race. This blog aims to cover every twist and turn leading up to the November election, and will cover both parties. I assure you this is going to be a race that provides more thrills, spills, shocks and surprises than an oylmpic sprint with athletes on steroids. So sit back, if you can, and delight in the closest presidential race imaginable!