Nevada and South Carolina Results

As I called my housemates at 11pm, trying desperately to hear the results over the sounds of the musical 'delights' of the 80s and 90s, the results of the caucuses which pretty much as expected. Hillary Clinton won the caucus for the Democrats by polling 51% of the votes, followed by Obama at 45%. Edwards came in third place yet again but only polled 4% of the vote. Edwards, although adamant he won't drop out of the race, might have to rethink his earlier assertion after continuous poor showings. Edwards should pick up some points in South Carolina next week but can still only hope for third place. Unfortunately I can't see Edwards holding out to the convention, and will probably concede after Super Tuesday. The Republicans meanwhile saw another win for Romney but it was a state that no candidate was particularly interested in, focusing on the more important South Carolina. Like Clinton, Romney got 51% of the vote and stormed it, with Ron Paul polling 2nd with 14%, and John McCain third.

But whilst it is another win for Romney, he has not captured the coveted frontrunner position, a position that was occupied and reinforced by John McCain, who won South Carolina with 33%, followed closely by Huckabee with 30%, which I managed to be home in time for but was severely dissapointed with the BBC's non existent coverage of this important primary. Huckabee must be disappointed; he was relying on the evangelical vote to see him with a win but a large number have abandoned him and sided with McCain. Like Edwards, Huckabee will probably only last until Super Tuesday. This win was an incredibly important one for McCain, as every Republican who has won this primary since 1980 has gone on to win the nomination, so it is looking more and more likely that the first week of September will see the confirmation of a certain senator from Arizona.

For the Democrats the race remains wide open. Whilst Clinton gained the popular vote in Nevada, Obama gained more delegates overall due to the proportional representation system that decides the number of delegates the candidates are allowed. Obama got 13 delegates, to Clinton's 12. This is because Obama won more of the rural areas, and these are allowed an extra delegate due to the small populations. And he won these areas not by the popular vote, but by a pack of cards due to two districts in these rural areas being tied, called the Old West Tie Breaker. In order to decide the victor of the two districts a Clinton supporter and an Obama supporter pulled a card from the pack, and who got the higher card won the district. Obama came up trumps both times. Only in Nevada!

So the Democrats look to South Carolina on Saturday, which should see Obama picking up the win here due to 50% of Democrat voters in the state being African American. The Clinton camp should be expect second place, which is why Clinton is focusing on securing the Hispanic population which helped her pick up Nevada. The Republicans look to Florida the following Tuesday which will spell disaster for Guliani if he does not win, as he has ignored all the previous states. Then my friends we have Super Tuesday, which is going to be celebrated at my house with an election party! Keep checking the blog for the latest ups and downs in the race for the nominations. This race never fails to amaze!