Iowa Caucus 3rd Jan

Iowa speaks, America listens

Picture the scene. Two US election political junkies trawling the streets of Southampton looking for a Freeview box at around 11pm in bitterly cold winds, just so they are able to watch the first of the state primaries, kicking off what is sure to be the most exciting political campaign to date. Was it worth it? Oh yes. Gearing up at midnight we watched the analysis and predictions of what is to come from newspaper political editors, news correspondents and political analysists, with many early exit polls placing Obama with a two point lead over Hillary at 31%, with Edwards and Clinton at 29%. Many analysts predicted an Obama win and it was a question of how much of a disaster it would be if Clinton came third. At around 1am the Republican results were announced, coming in first due to their much easier way of voting in these caucuses than the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee was declared the winner, followed by Mitt Romney and John McCain in third. It has to be remembered that John McCain spent little time in Iowa, not releasing a single ad and to come third is an extraordinary feat, with him being expected to pick up the win in New Hampshire. Romney, of course has to be disappointed. He spent over $17 million dollars of his own money, and spent 20 times that of Huckabee’s budget. If Romney does not win, or come second in New Hampshire, with him polling at only 6% in national polls it might be time for him to realise that he’s not going to the White House. Huckabee on the other hand will be pleased with the win and will now focus on the upcoming South Carolina primary. Huckabee knows that he will not do well in New Hampshire quite simply due to the lack of Evangelical Christians in those parts. Over 60% of people in Iowa identify themselves as EC’s whereas in is only 20% in New Hampshire. South Carolina has a strong Christian demographic so it will be a shock if he does not pick up the victory there. When Romney was asked why he thought he didn’t win in Iowa he simply replied ‘I’m not a Baptist preacher’. I think with that remark Romney should not put his house on doing well in South Carolina.

Soon we had the Democrat result and as expected Obama took the win. But Obama took that win with just over 36% of the vote. Obama benefited greatly from the 18-26 demographic with him picking up a phenomenal 54% of. He also took a large chunk of the female vote, a demographic that Clinton relies on. Many of Obama’s caucusers were first time voters and he gained a lot of the Independent vote, which should see him picking up a few points in the national polls. Most importantly it showed to the world that America is ready for change and is looking to the candidate of hope, rather than experience, to take them there. Clinton will not be happy with third place, although Edwards only beat her by 3 points of a percentage point. But she should take New Hampshire and still has a large lead in the national polls. Also Iowa is not an indicator of who will be president, with both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan coming third.

So the candidates roll on the New Hampshire for some last minute campaigning, trying to muster those all important voters. The US election has officially kicked off and by god, I’m overcome with excitement. Let the battle commence!

Predictions for New Hampshire:

Democrat Republican
1st-Clinton 1st-McCain
2nd-Obama 2nd-Romney
3rd-Edwards 3rd-Huckabee